Through energy input–output (E-IO) analyses from 1985 to 2005, the changes in three factors affecting GHG emissions in South Korea were analyzed. Based on the E-IO results, the changes in the direct and total (embodied) GHG emissions from the pertinent sectors were decomposed into three factors—the energy consumption effect, the social effect, and the technological effect—using the Sato-Vartia index for the three periods of 1985–1995, 1995–2000, and 2000–2005. The decomposition analysis demonstrated that a total emission matrix including both direct and indirect GHG emissions showed an evolution pattern that was very similar to the changes in direct GHG emissions; however, ripple effects were observed in the case of emissions from sector #-59 (Synthetic resins, synthetic rubber-p). The results showed that national energy policies such as those pertaining to the diversification of energy sources, shifts in the energy consumption structure (social effect), and the transformation to a low-carbon energy economy (technology effect) were effective. Finally, several limitations of the Divisia decomposition analysis were pointed out.
According to the energy statistics of South Korea [1], South Korea accomplished rapid industrial growth after the 1980s. It was during this process that the nation’s energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the industrial sector increased dramatically. According to official government statistics, the annual final energy consumption increased from 46,998 kTOE in 1985 to 180,543 kTOE in 2007, representing an annual average rate of 7.0%, as shown in Fig. 1. Energy was grouped into the following eight categories: Coal, Fuel, non-fuel oil (Nfuel), Gas, low-carbon electricity generation (Lelec), fossil fuel electricity generation (Felec), naphtha (Nap) and district heating (Heat).
Fig. 1
In the final energy consumption structure of South Korea, the relative importance of the consumption of Coal and Fuel were reduced from their 1985 levels of 38.2% and 39.9%, respectively, to 13.0% and 31.3% in 2007. On the other hand, the relative importance of the consumption of Nfuel, Gas, Lelec, and Felec during the same period increased to 24.4%, 10.4%, 6.6%, and 10.9% in 2007 from 8.1%, 0.2%, 3.3%, and 6.0%, respectively, in 1985. The growth rate of the final energy consumption was higher than that of the GDP through the period between 1985 and 2005, as shown in Table 1[2]. During this period, the energy use environment of South Korea was marked by the rapid spread of automobiles and distinctive changes in industrial structures. The change in the industrial structures, that is, the increase in the relative importance of the service industry as well as the increases related to automobiles and semiconductors, petrochemicals, steel, and high-value-added consumption materials led to an increasing demand for clean energy sources such as electricity and gas. This increased demand for clean energy sources also resulted in a decrease in the relative importance of lower-value-added and labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as textiles, shoes, and container manufacturing.
GHG emissions associated with energy use stood at 490.5 Mt-CO2 in 2005, showing an increase of 4.9% in AAGR (Average Annual Growth Rate), which was lower than that of the final energy consumption between 1990 and 2005. Among the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), South Korea was rated as the sixth-highest country in terms of total GHG emissions in 2004. Between 1990 and 2005, the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions doubled, increasing by 105.2%. This growth rate is the highest among OECD members according to data from the Ministry of the Environment [3].
Although South Korea does not have any binding targets under the Kyoto Protocol, the country nevertheless declared a voluntary mitigation target for November of 2009. However, for countries such as South Korea, which belong to the non-Annex 1 group, it is more important to have the capability to analyze the emission characteristics in each of their industrial sectors rather than to engage in declarations pertaining to a reduction in total emissions, so that they may be in a better position to prevent a loss of economic competitiveness in the post-Kyoto era.
The intermediate demand sector comprises approximately 85% of the final energy consumption of South Korea. The energy used by the intermediate demand sector plays a very important role in the cyclical structure of the national economy because it creates added value as a direct input. Moreover, with the application of a sectoral approach in discussions on climate change after the adoption of the Bali Road Map, each country must provide, as an important part of its national reduction goals, the capability to analyze the characteristics of the GHG emissions from its various industrial sectors. Therefore, it is important to reveal the characteristics of the energy use and environmental emissions associated with the activities of the intermediate demand sector and to analyze the socio-technological impact on these factors as a result of South Korean policies to reduce GHG emissions.
1.2. Decomposition methods
Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and index decomposition analysis (IDA) are typically used as preferred methods of decomposition analysis. In general, SDA uses information from IO tables, while IDA uses aggregate data at the sector level [4]. In the present work, IDA is used to analyze time-series changes of GHG emissions from individual sectors. IDA is considered to be suitable for analyzing time-series changes because it does not leave a decomposition residual [5], [6].
The concept of decomposition analysis was originally a basic tool in positive economics because a majority of economic data is prepared based on the concept of an economic differential and/or an index. Moreover, among all decomposition analysis methods, IDA is also suitable for examining and measuring production, social, technological effects using national-level data; thus, it is widely used in energy and environmental analysis, especially in the energy sector. Hence, IDA is considered as a type of energy decomposition analysis [4].
To reveal the characteristics of the energy use and GHG emissions of the intermediate demand sector and determine the socio-technological impact on these factors in South Korea, a Divisia decomposition analysis was conducted using original data procured through a hybrid energy input–output (E-IO) table. The results of the analysis were interpreted by dividing the time frame into Phase I (1985–1995), Phase II (1995–2000) and Phase III (2000–2005) based on the times when South Korea began considering the climate change factor in its energy policy.
We attempt to represent the direct and total GHG emissions from each industry sector using the E-IO table in an effort to guard against the difficulty of building necessary sectoral data for each industry when establishing what can be considered to cope with a Post-Kyoto system. While an analyst may want to measure the indirect demand effects of energy use, only decompositions with IO tables are possible because the Divisia decomposition analysis uses aggregate data.
If you are interested in this research article, you can download the full length article through the download page using the link below, both PDF file and Word file are provided.
No comments:
Post a Comment